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      基于双重优化的VMD-CNN-BiGRU水位预测模型

      VMD-CNN-BiGRU water level prediction model based on dual optimization

      • 摘要: 为降低水位数据的非线性和非平稳特性,克服水位预测误差较大的问题,提出一种基于双重优化的组合预测模型——VMD-CNN-BiGRU水位预测模型。首先,采用冠豪猪优化算法对变分模态分解(VMD)的模态分解数和二次惩罚因子进行优化,确保分解过程的最优设置,以获取表征水位数据特性的本征模态函数;然后,引入麻雀搜索算法对CNN-BiGRU(卷积神经网络-双向门控循环单元)网络参数进行优化,以提升模型的预测能力;最后,整合各分量预测序列,得到最终水位预测结果。为验证组合预测模型的有效性,基于长江陈二河水位站实测数据,并使用冠豪猪优化算法、麻雀搜索算法、粒子群优化算法,分别对VMD和CNN-BiGRU模型参数进行优化验证。同时,通过消融实验验证了组合模型的必要性。结果表明:在VMD和CNN-BiGRU参数优化中,冠豪猪优化算法对于VMD的优化效果最好,适应度值更低、收敛效果更好;麻雀搜索算法对CNN-BiGRU的优化效果最好。消融实验中,CNN-BiGRU在加入VMD分解后,平均绝对误差MAE,平方绝对百分比误差MAPE,均方根误差RMSE分别降低了33%,27%,24%,拟合系数R2提高了0.021;在加入双重优化算法后,MAEMAPE, RMSE分别降低了63%,64%,60%,R2提高了0.050。这进一步表明组合模型的每一个模块在水位预测任务中都是不可或缺的。

         

        Abstract: To reduce the non-linearity and non-stationarity of water level data and to solve the problem of large prediction errors in water level forecasting, a dual-optimized hybrid prediction model, VMD-CNN-BiGRU water level prediction model was proposed.First, the Crowned Porcupine Optimization (CPO) algorithm was used to optimize the number of modal decomposition and the quadratic penalty factor of the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) to ensure the optimal settings of the decomposition process and obtain intrinsic mode functions that characterize the water level data features.Then the Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA) was introduced to optimize the parameters of CNN-BiGRU (Convolutional Neural Network-Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit) model to improve its prediction capability.Finally, all the predicted component sequences were integrated to obtain the final water level prediction results.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid prediction model, measured data from the Chen erhe Station of Yangtze River were used, and the CPO algorithm, SSA algorithm, and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm were respectively applied to optimize the parameters of the VMD and CNN-BiGRU models for validation.Meanwhile, ablation experiments were conducted to verify the necessity of the hybrid model.The results showed that in the optimization of VMD and CNN-BiGRU parameters, the CPO algorithm achieves the best optimization effect for VMD with lower fitness values and better convergence performance, while the SSA algorithm performs best in optimizing CNN-BiGRU.In the ablation experiments, after introducing VMD decomposition into CNN-BiGRU, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) decrease by 33%, 27%, and 24%, respectively, while the coefficient of determination (R2) increases by 0.021;after further introducing the SSA and CPO optimization algorithms, the MAE, MAPE, and RMSE decrease by 63%, 64%, and 60%, respectively, and R2 increases by 0.050.This further indicates that each module of the hybrid model is indispensable in the water level prediction task.

         

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