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      在线测流系统结合机器学习在流量预测中的应用

      Application of Online Flow Measurement System Combined with Neural Network Model in Flow Prediction

      • 摘要: 本文针对长江下游八里江水文站传统水位-流量多元回归模型精度不足的问题,利用在线测流系统获取八里江水文站210组实测数据(水位变幅6.30~21.14 m,流量变幅15300~73800 m³/s,浮标流速0.44~2.37 m/s),系统比较了BP、CNN、ELM、LSTM、BiLSTM、RBF与SVM等多种神经网络模型在流量模拟中的表现。结果表明,所有神经网络模型在训练期与验证期均显著优于多元回归模型:训练阶段MEA下降314~414 m³/s,MAPE降低1.20%~1.64%,RSME减少439~603 m³/s,NSE提升0.29%~0.36%;验证阶段MEA下降81~304 m³/s,MAPE下降0.52%~2.40%,RSME降低80~221 m³/s,NSE提高0.23%~0.57%。在基础模型中,BP神经网络综合性能最优,其训练期MEA、MAPE、RSME和NES分别为468 m³/s、2.02%、636 m³/s和0.998,验证期分别为686 m³/s、3.32%、936 m³/s和0.9914。为进一步提升性能,本文引入遗传算法(GA)与粒子群算法(PSO)优化BP网络初始权重,其中PSO-BP模型表现最佳,训练期MEA、MAPE、RSME和NSE分别达437 m³/s、1.88%、581 m³/s和0.9988,验证期分别为612 m³/s、2.92%、825 m³/s和0.993。研究表明,PSO-BP混合模型可有效提高八里江水文站流量预测精度,为该类问题提供了一种更可靠的建模途径。

         

        Abstract: To address the accuracy limitations of conventional multiple regression models for stage-discharge relationships at the Balijiang Hydrological Station in the lower Yangtze River, this study employs an online flow measurement system to collect 210 field datasets (stage range: 6.30-21.14 m, discharge range: 15, 300-73, 800 m³/s, float velocity range: 0.44-2.37 m/s). A systematic comparison was conducted to evaluate the performance of various neural network models including BP, CNN, ELM, LSTM, BiLSTM, RBF, and SVM in discharge simulation. Results demonstrate that all neural network models significantly outperform the multiple regression model in both training and validation phases. During training, the models achieved reductions of 314-414 m³/s in MAE, 1.20%-1.64% in MAPE, and 439-603 m³/s in RMSE, while improving NSE by 0.29%-0.36%. In validation, performance improvements included MAE reduction of 81-304 m³/s, MAPE decrease of 0.52%-2.40%, RMSE reduction of 80-221 m³/s, and NSE enhancement of 0.23%-0.57%. Among the baseline models, the BP neural network delivered the most comprehensive performance with training phase MAE, MAPE, RMSE, and NSE values of 468 m³/s, 2.02%, 636 m³/s, and 0.998 respectively, and validation phase values of 686 m³/s, 3.32%, 936 m³/s, and 0.9914 respectively. To further enhance performance, genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) were introduced to optimize the initial weights of the BP network. The PSO-BP model demonstrated superior performance, achieving training phase MAE, MAPE, RMSE, and NSE values of 437 m³/s, 1.88%, 581 m³/s, and 0.9988 respectively, and validation phase values of 612 m³/s, 2.92%, 825 m³/s, and 0.993 respectively. This research confirms that the PSO-BP hybrid model effectively improves the accuracy of discharge prediction at Balijiang Hydrological Station, providing a more reliable modeling approach for similar hydrological applications.

         

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