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      小流域山洪灾害动态临界预警指标确定研究

      • 摘要: 山洪灾害预警指标是山洪灾害预报预警的核心,直接关系到山洪灾害预警的及时性和有效性。由于小流域数量多,存在模型参数、成灾水位流量难以确定等问题。为快速确定小流域的山洪动态预警指标,构建小流域产汇流模型,采用前期雨量指数模型(API)计算产流,基于地貌特征自动提取小流域汇流单位线,实现小流域山洪过程模拟。通过连续模拟试算,结合调查的小流域成灾流量,提出考虑上下游流域水量交换的小流域成灾流量确定方法,实现致灾临界雨量动态反推计算。以安徽省练江流域为例,结合实况及预报降雨,实现了山洪小流域静态及动态预警,为提升安徽省山洪小流域山洪预警精度提供有效手段。

         

        Abstract: Early warning indicators for mountain flood disasters are the core of mountain flood disaster forecasting and early warning, directly related to the timeliness and effectiveness of mountain flood disaster early warning. Due to the large number of small watersheds and the difficulty in determining model parameters and disaster-causing water levels and flows, to quickly determine the dynamic early warning indicators for mountain floods in small watersheds, a small watershed runoff generation and concentration model was constructed. The Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) model was used to calculate runoff generation, and the unit hydrograph of small watersheds was automatically extracted based on topographic features to simulate the mountain flood process in small watersheds. Through continuous simulation trials, combined with the surveyed disaster-causing flow in small watersheds, a method for determining the disaster-causing flow in small watersheds considering the water exchange between upstream and downstream watersheds was proposed to achieve the dynamic back-calculation of the critical rainfall for disaster-causing. Taking the Lianjiang River Basin in Anhui Province as an example, combined with actual and forecasted rainfall, static and dynamic early warning for mountain floods in small watersheds was achieved, providing an effective means to improve the accuracy of early warning for mountain floods in small watersheds in Anhui Province.

         

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